conic.ai

CONVICTION PICKS

AVOID / TRIM

• META — -5.44% today, abs_mom False, broken trend continues — oversold is not a thesis.
• MSFT — -3.79% today, 1m -9%, abs_mom False — structural break continues.
• SMCI — Streak 9 hits, hit-rate 100%. Keep fading.
• ARM — +5.69% to fresh ATH, 1m +87.7% — uninvestable mania.
• AMAT — RSI 75.6 after +4.35% bounce — back to parabolic territory.
• WDC — RSI 71.6, pos_52w 1.0, 1m +56.3% — pure chase, no entry.
• VCX — No F-score, junk bounce.
• CRCL — F=3, falling knife.

POSITION PLAN & RISK open P&L +0.8% · realized -5.5% · 2 open / 5 closed

BACKTEST · $100k since inception paper book (with stops) vs the plan basket

VALIDATION / EDGE

BELIEF UPDATES · vs yesterday

• KEEP META avoid→avoid Today -5.44%, RSI 32.7, abs/ts mom False, pos_52w 0.16. Hit-rate 78% on the avoid; the structural fade is exactly playing out. Oversold but no thesis reversal — broken trend stays broken.
• KEEP MSFT avoid→avoid -3.79% today, RSI 32.2, 1w -2.93%, 1m -9.0%, abs_mom still False. Streak hits keep extending — share-loss narrative + technical break intact. Avoid compounds.
• KEEP ESTC avoid→avoid No new evidence; spike-only bounce off broken trend, no quality change.
• KEEP VRT avoid→avoid Today +6.03% but on F=5 fc=0.447 — a sharp bounce off a broken trend, not a quality fix. The fundamentals still don't clear the bar. Wait stands; would only re-rate on F-score improvement, not on price.
• KEEP NVDA avoid→avoid F=4 binding gate, 1m -7.1%, 1w -0.11%, RSI 43.8 — still the lowest-quality name in the megacap AI complex. -1.33% today inside an SMH +1.29% says relative weakness intact. Streak -5 confirms.
• KEEP SMCI avoid→avoid Today -4.93%, 1w -13.1%, 1m -9.1%, RSI 34. Streak 9 hits, hit-rate 100% — the most reliable call in the book. Keep fading.
• KEEP MU avoid→avoid +2.20% today; 1m still +49.3%, 12-1 +482%. Yesterday's -6.18% was reabsorbed in 24 hours — exactly why we don't chase the dip. Quality F=7 is real but valuation/chase risk unchanged.
• KEEP ARM avoid→avoid +5.69% today, 1m +87.7%, pos_52w 1.0 (ATH). Streak flipped negative because the chase keeps running — that is a sign to stay out, not to capitulate in. Uninvestable until the air comes out.
• KEEP NTAP avoid→avoid Today -4.00%, still 1m +28.4%, hqm_q False. Spike-only profile intact.
• KEEP HPE avoid→avoid No new evidence; F=4, spike-only profile, parabolic. Avoid stands.
• KEEP PL avoid→avoid F=2, PM negative. Junk.
• KEEP ACMR avoid→avoid +5.49% today, 1m +44.8% on F=2 — pure mania residue, no fundamentals.
• KEEP WOLF avoid→avoid +8.20% bounce on no F-score, PM negative — still a falling knife, just twitching.
• KEEP SMTC avoid→avoid Today -7.05%. F=7 is real but the technical break confirms the 'no entry' read. Avoid stands; revisit if it bases.
• KEEP MRVL avoid→avoid +3.90% today reverses most of yesterday's -9.78%. The 'first crack in a parabolic' did not become a top — 1m still +64.3%, RSI 63. Wait for an actual break, not a single-day flicker.
• KEEP CSCO avoid→avoid -1.87% today, F=8 quality real but no real pullback materialized — 1m still +1.7%, RSI 48. Wait for VRT-style flush still stands.
• KEEP CRCL avoid→avoid F=3, 1m still deeply negative — falling knife.
• KEEP CRWV avoid→avoid abs_mom still False, PM negative — junk.
• KEEP AXTI avoid→avoid F=2 mania residue.
• KEEP APLD avoid→avoid F=4, PM -59%. No quality change.
• KEEP AMAT avoid→avoid +4.35% today, RSI 75.6 — back at parabolic territory. The ATH chase frame is fully intact; one down session bought nothing.
• KEEP LRCX avoid→avoid +1.31% today, 1m still +36.9%, pos_52w 0.95. Same chase profile, not a pullback.
• KEEP ASML avoid→avoid +3.55% today, 1m +28.0%, RSI 65.8. The wait-for-pullback thesis was wrong by one session — but converting to a buy on RSI 66 ATH-adjacent is not the trade. Wait stands.
• KEEP KLAC avoid→avoid +0.59% today, RSI 68. Yesterday's -7.44% did not turn into a real break — parabolic resumed. Wait for an actual base, not a one-day shakeout.
• KEEP VCX avoid→avoid +8.16% bounce on no F-score, 1m -56.9%. Junk bounce — worst name in book stays out.
• KEEP TSM watch→watch Today only +1.48% inside an SMH +1.29% — TSM did NOT outperform the bounce, which keeps it from being a high-conviction add here. Still the cleanest setup in the universe: F=9, fc=0.825, hqm_q True, abs/ts_mom pass, fwd_PE 21.7, rec=strong_buy, RSI only 52.4 (no overheat). The thesis is intact but the entry edge is gone now that the flush reversed — keep watching for either a deeper pullback or a clean breakout on volume.

VS PRIOR DAYS

Yesterday's read was that the semi flush would need 'another session to bleed before bidding quality.' That was wrong by ~24 hours — the flush reversed today instead of extending (SMH +1.29% after -4.81%). However, none of yesterday's AVOID calls became buys: every parabolic name (AMAT/LRCX/KLAC/MU/ARM/MRVL) bounced right back into the same overextended zone we were avoiding, so the directional discipline is still correct — just no new opportunity unlocked. SMCI fade continues to print (streak 9, hit 100%, -4.93% today). TSM was held at watch (not buy) — correct given today's relative underperformance. Lesson: do not buy a single-day flush; wait for at least 3-5 sessions of real basing.

MACRO & REGIME

X / FINTWIT TRENDS

• Fintwit reading today's tape as classic intra-tech rotation, not de-risking (@KunnuInvests, @DV_Memetics): money leaving mega-cap consumer/social into cheaper semi/inference names — consistent with NVDA underperforming SMH and MU/SNDK/AMD/INTC catching the bid.
• Datacenter capex narrative (@rayno on custom AI racks: NVDA/HPE/DELL/CSCO) still being absorbed as structurally intact — the AI-infra thesis is not broken, only the multiple is being re-shuffled across the supply chain.
• No fresh signal on China AI policy or supply chain today; the prior HBM/DDR6 narrative remains the macro of the trade but isn't moving prices intraday.

FULL WATCHLIST · reference only, descriptive not a buy list