conic.ai

A daily discipline tool: what to do, what to ignore · 2026-06-02 · 98 stocks · 16:08 ET
SPY 0.13%
QQQ 0.46%
SMH 4.01%
VIX 15.8 -1.5%
TODAYHold the book; the only new add is keeping VRT as the cleanest entry. Do not chase the parabolic tier-2 ripfest (HPE +19.5%, MRVL +32.5%).
RISK-ON Constructive - but constructive is not a reason to chase.
This system has NO statistically validated edge yet (4 sessions). Treat every pick as a hypothesis, not a recommendation.

MARKET READ

Risk-on intact (4/5 votes): SPY above 200d, VIX sub-20, curve +85bp positive, breadth 71% above 200d. Today was a FOMO-grade blow-off in second-tier AI-server / semis / power names: HPE +19.5% (1m +95.6%, RSI 92), MRVL +32.5% (1m +77.7%, RSI 86.6), CSCO +5.5% (1m +38.2%, RSI 82.6), ACMR +12%, WOLF +15.4%, SMTC +11.4%, NTAP RSI 91. The HBM/WFE basket (ASML, KLAC, LRCX, AMAT) all printed +5-7% with 52w pos=1.00. Megacap quality LAGGED: NVDA -0.69%, ORCL -1.45%, MSFT -4.17%. This is classic late-cycle rotation — institutions taking profits in mature winners, retail/momo chasing catch-ups. The carryover AVOID list (MU/ARM/HPE/NTAP/SMCI/ACMR/WOLF/SMTC) ripped today — that does NOT validate them; it means the chase is more extended. VRT (the one acccumulate-the-dip thesis) finally responded +3.46% / +4.63% wk while RSI is still only 35.9 — thesis confirmed cleanly. Macro tide is supportive, but inside the AI tape the air is getting thin.

CONVICTION PICKS

VRT MEDIUM ACCUMULATE
The only carryover thesis that worked cleanly today: +3.46% / +4.63% wk while RSI is still only 35.9 — the dip is being absorbed without going parabolic. HQM quality TRUE, abs_mom TRUE, pos52w 0.84. Datacenter-power narrative reinforced by Jefferies channel checks (substation/interconnect/cooling are THE bottleneck of the AI buildout). Compounds the existing accumulate.
CHAIN · Continuation of the carryover accumulate; this is the pick the entire dataroom keeps pointing to.
KILL · Kill if close <125 (breaks 21d SMA) or if VIX > 22 with risk-off votes 2/5+.
NVDA MEDIUM ACCUMULATE
Today's -0.69% while tier-2 ripped is the rotation pattern we want to fade INTO, not chase. RSI 51.6 (cool for a leader), pos52w 0.87, fwd PE 17.6, HQM TRUE, abs_mom TRUE, F-score 4. Jefferies notes Rubin visibility already discussed in supply chain — runway extends to 2028-2029.
CHAIN · Continuation of yesterday's upgrade from watch.
KILL · Kill if close <165 (8% below current) or if SMH breaks 200d.
META MEDIUM ACCUMULATE
Still 0.27 of 52w range, fwd PE 16.5 — the cheapest megacap with real AI optionality. abs_mom failed this week so we're not pounding the table, but the value gap hasn't moved. Continue to size up on weakness, not strength.
CHAIN · Downgrade-but-keep from carryover buy/high.
KILL · Kill if close <570 (would confirm a distribution pattern).

AVOID / TRIM

  • HPE — +19.5% today / +96% mo / RSI 92 — blow-off, not entry
  • MRVL — +32.5% today / +77.7% mo / RSI 86.6 — same, parabolic late-stage
  • SMCI — abs_mom FAIL, RSI 86.4, no quality gate
  • MU — pos52w 1.00, RSI 76, all of HBM priced
  • ARM — fwd PE 131, RSI 84 — worst risk/reward in book
  • NTAP — RSI 91, most extended name in universe
  • CSCO — RSI 82.6 even with F-score 8 — wait for pullback before any add
  • ACMR — F-score 2, no quality, chasing the spike
  • WOLF — spike_only, negative fwd PE, falling-knife bounce
  • SMTC — spike_only, no fundamentals visibility
  • ESTC — spike_only TRUE, abs_mom FALSE, +33% mo on no thesis change
  • PL — fwd PE -2137, unprofitable, post-earnings hangover
CONCENTRATION · This book is effectively one AI-capex factor; correlated names do not diversify each other. (4 names, top sector 78.1%)

POSITION PLAN & RISK exposure x1.0 · open P&L +1.1% · realized -1.0% · 4 open / 1 closed · sizing uses priors - no validated edge yet

TKRWEIGHT?HRP / equal-weight relative allocation scaled by a regime-throttled gross-exposure budget, capped 20% per name.KELLY?Conviction tier shown for transparency only - there is no realized hit-rate yet, so it does NOT drive the weight.HRP?Hierarchical Risk Parity weight from real daily returns: correlation-aware, so correlated names share the risk budget.STOP?Initial stop = entry - 2x ATR. Volatility-adaptive risk per share.TRAIL?Chandelier exit: highest-high(22d) - 3x ATR. Daily trailing stop once in profit.SHARES?ATR-based size: shares so a 2x ATR move = 1% of a 100k notional.QUAL?Piotroski F-score gate: pass (>=6) / neutral / fail (<=4, blocked) / unknown.STRAT?Absolute-momentum read: names failing the 12m>risk-free gate are tagged mean-reversion and sized down, not dressed as momentum.
VRT9%12%12%297.90321.1927unknownstrong 12m · momentum
NVDA0%12%38%206.14210.7359failstrong 12m · momentum
META20%12%50%566.96589.2832neutralweak 12m mom · mean reversion

COOLDOWN · no re-entry

  • META locked until 2026-06-08 (stop hit)

BACKTEST · $100k since inception paper, daily rebalance to the plan

Summary stats unlock at 3/10 sessions. The curves below are real but still too short to read as performance.
100k106k
Strategy (follow the plan)SMH · just buy the sectorSPY · broad marketCash · do nothing
Hypothetical paper portfolio reconstructed from the plan you would have followed each day; cash earns 0%. Not real fills, not advice, no slippage/fees modeled.
TRACK RECORD · BUILDING4/6 sessions · 11/8 matured calls before a verified track record shows.

VALIDATION / EDGE

Measuring, not yet validated (3 sessions). IC, walk-forward, benchmark-vs-SMH and the tearsheet appear here once each has enough real history.

VS PRIOR DAYS

Yesterday's calls still mostly pending 3d maturity. But the qualitative read is loud: every tier-2 AVOID name (HPE/MRVL/SMCI/NTAP/ACMR/WOLF/SMTC) ripped today. This is uncomfortable but does NOT invalidate the framework — the rules say buying parabolic spike-only names is a tail-risk bet, and we don't take those even when they pay off short-term. The discipline is exactly what survives a regime change. Meanwhile VRT (the cleanest setup) is doing what it was supposed to do. Keep the playbook.

MACRO & REGIME

RISK-ONrisk-on 4/5VIX 15.81 normal (14-20)10y-3m 0.83breadth 71.4% >200dT-bill 3.62%

Indices (1w)

SPY1.19%
QQQ2.17%
SMH4.99%
IWM0.40%

Rates / credit

3m T-bill3.62%
10y4.45%
10y-3m0.83%
HY-IG 1m-0.37%

International (1w)

DXY0.05%
EM3.54%
China1.72%
Japan0.73%
Europe-0.57%
Gold-0.50%
Oil0.21%
Bitcoin-11.45%

X / FINTWIT TRENDS

  • AI-infra bottleneck has BROADENED from GPUs to substation/power/cooling/interconnect — Jefferies channel checks call the cycle 'foundational, not cyclical' (rickyho_1989)
  • Greenfield datacenter = 3-5y to power; repowered sites = months — RePowerDC, @palisade_eng both flag substation interconnect as the gating item (favors VRT/ETN/CEG/PWR)
  • Sovereign AI demand picking up (Japan/SoftBank Stargate) — supports the multi-year capex thesis
  • ASIC scaling (TPU/Trainium/MTIA) is widening the compute pie, not eating NVDA
  • Tier-2 AI-server names (HPE/MRVL/NTAP/SMCI) are the late-cycle chase basket — fintwit cheering the rips, NOT a thesis

FULL WATCHLIST · reference only, descriptive not a buy list

TKRNAME MOM-C?Momentum consistency gate: not bottom-quartile in ANY of 1w/1m/3m/6m (a consistent trend, not a single-window spike). NOT a fundamental-quality measure. Lightning = spike-only, do not chase. BLEND?Descriptive blend of technical + fundamental percentiles. NOT a buy signal and NOT the default sort - just a reference number. Click to sort if you want. PX 1D1W1M YTD?Year-to-date return: % change since Jan 1 this year. 1Y?1-year price trend (weekly sampled). Black line = up over the year, gray = down. Click to sort by 6-month return. RSI?Relative Strength Index (14d). Momentum oscillator 0-100. Above 70 = overbought, below 30 = oversold. 52W?Position in the 52-week range. 0.00 = at the yearly low, 1.00 = at the yearly high. VOL?Volume surge: last 5-day average volume divided by 90-day average. Above 1.0x = trading heavier than usual. P/S?Price-to-Sales ratio: market cap divided by trailing 12-month revenue. Lower = cheaper on sales. FPE?Forward P/E: price divided by next-12-month expected earnings per share. Lower = cheaper on forward earnings. TGT?Analyst target upside: mean analyst price target vs current price, in %. Negative = trading ABOVE the average target. 20/50/200?Price vs the 20, 50 and 200-day moving averages. Up arrow = price above that average (uptrend), down = below.
★ META Meta Platforms, Inc. · 597.63 -0.5% -5.9% -2.1% -8% 47 0.27 1.3x 7.1 16.5 38%
★ NVDA NVIDIA Corporation 222.82 -0.7% 4.8% 12.3% 18% 52 0.87 1.1x 21.3 17.6 33%
★ VRT Vertiv Holdings, LLC 334.59 3.5% 4.6% 1.1% 91% 36 0.84 0.8x 11.9 37.9 13%
AAOI ! Applied Optoelectronics, 202.37 9.0% 12.5% 17.0% 411% 54 0.90 1.1x 32.0 42.4 -25%
AAPL ! Apple Inc. 315.20 2.9% 1.4% 14.0% 17% 76 1.00 1.1x 10.3 32.8 -1%
ACMR AVOID ACM Research, Inc. 91.93 12.0% 3.7% 79.4% 105% 77 0.99 1.4x 6.6 40.8 -7%
AEHR ! Aehr Test Systems 113.00 20.7% 8.8% 32.0% 410% 58 1.00 0.8x 78.5 753.3 -44%
AEIS Advanced Energy Industri · 312.28 6.0% -4.9% -19.3% 41% 41 0.72 1.6x 6.6 26.6 26%
AFRM Affirm Holdings, Inc. · 71.01 -2.6% 0.8% 5.9% -4% 61 0.57 0.9x 6.0 18.8 17%
AGX Argan, Inc. · 662.50 2.4% -1.6% -5.0% 104% 46 0.85 0.6x 9.8 44.4 -29%
ALMU Aeluma, Inc. 26.56 1.3% 14.6% 15.7% 49% 49 0.76 1.2x 93.6 -107.7 8%
AMAT ! Applied Materials, Inc. 489.82 6.9% 9.3% 25.3% 83% 71 1.00 0.9x 13.4 30.3 4%
AMD ! Advanced Micro Devices, 521.54 2.2% 5.2% 52.7% 133% 70 1.00 0.8x 22.7 39.9 -8%
AMKR ! Amkor Technology, Inc. 74.74 2.7% 3.5% 5.3% 74% 52 0.94 1.1x 2.6 30.5 1%
AMZN Amazon.com, Inc. · 256.52 -1.8% -5.6% -5.7% 13% 42 0.76 0.9x 3.7 26.0 22%
ANET ! Arista Networks, Inc. 175.29 2.7% 13.6% 1.5% 31% 78 0.97 1.1x 22.7 39.4 7%
APH Amphenol Corporation 148.41 1.4% 5.8% 5.2% 6% 70 0.77 1.1x 7.0 26.3 23%
APLD ! Applied Digital Corporat 47.86 -0.2% -2.3% 34.3% 70% 56 0.96 0.9x 42.8 -50.4 35%
ARM AVOID Arm Holdings plc 402.71 -1.5% 33.0% 98.1% 251% 84 0.98 1.6x 87.4 131.6 -40%
ASML ! ASML Holding N.V. - New 1705.37 4.7% 6.7% 23.0% 47% 68 1.00 0.7x 19.5 35.6 -2%
ASX ! ASE Technology Holding C 39.27 2.9% 0.5% 21.7% 133% 63 0.96 1.1x 0.1 24.8 -2%
AVGO ! Broadcom Inc. 481.57 4.7% 14.2% 15.6% 39% 74 1.00 1.2x 33.4 26.0 1%
AXTI AXT Inc · 110.93 1.3% -9.6% 4.7% 562% 45 0.79 0.9x 75.7 147.5 -21%
BE ! Bloom Energy Corporation 303.10 10.8% 3.2% 5.0% 207% 56 0.98 1.0x 35.2 69.7 -13%
CAMT Camtek Ltd. 187.24 14.8% 10.4% 2.5% 62% 56 0.86 1.1x 17.3 41.4 0%
CEG Constellation Energy Cor · 272.65 2.6% -5.6% -14.9% -25% 41 0.17 1.5x 3.3 20.0 35%
CIEN ! Ciena Corporation 627.33 10.1% 7.8% 16.5% 155% 59 1.00 0.8x 17.3 71.1 -26%
CIFR ! Cipher Digital Inc. 26.29 9.5% 4.5% 47.0% 62% 69 1.00 0.9x 51.3 39.2 20%
COHR ! Coherent Corp. 426.89 17.6% 12.3% 29.4% 120% 63 1.00 0.9x 12.7 52.7 -11%
CRCL Circle Internet Group, I · 100.81 -4.0% -1.8% -15.7% 21% 30 0.24 0.9x 9.4 45.2 45%
CRWV CoreWeave, Inc. · 119.27 -4.4% 14.4% -4.9% 50% 60 0.46 1.2x 10.4 -190.2 16%
CSCO AVOID Cisco Systems, Inc. 128.00 5.5% 7.0% 38.2% 69% 83 1.00 1.1x 8.3 26.8 -2%
DKNG DraftKings Inc. · 25.31 -3.9% 1.0% 7.4% -29% 54 0.17 1.1x 2.0 14.8 37%
DLR Digital Realty Trust, In · 187.23 1.2% -2.3% -5.7% 22% 37 0.71 1.0x 10.6 65.4 17%
DOCS Doximity, Inc. · 21.52 -4.6% 6.2% -13.5% -50% 35 0.06 0.9x 6.1 13.5 17%
ENTG Entegris, Inc. · 142.92 5.3% 2.1% 2.8% 60% 48 0.85 1.0x 6.7 30.9 12%
EQIX ! Equinix, Inc. 1071.67 2.0% 0.1% -0.6% 42% 49 0.90 0.8x 11.1 55.7 12%
ESTC AVOID Elastic N.V. 67.58 -0.7% 25.4% 33.4% -7% 83 0.47 2.0x 4.0 17.5 7%
ETN Eaton Corporation, PLC · 417.88 4.4% 2.8% -0.8% 28% 58 0.88 0.9x 5.7 26.6 8%
FN ! Fabrinet · 700.87 12.6% 2.0% -2.4% 46% 58 0.91 1.7x 5.9 40.6 7%
FORM FormFactor, Inc. · 125.11 8.7% -6.0% -6.9% 111% 45 0.76 0.9x 11.6 46.0 16%
FSLY Fastly, Inc. · 20.77 8.9% 23.9% -24.4% 104% 58 0.53 0.6x 5.0 52.6 16%
FTAI FTAI Aviation Ltd. · 245.86 -0.8% -1.8% 2.6% 17% 41 0.68 0.6x 8.9 21.3 43%
GDS GDS Holdings Limited · 36.91 3.9% 8.9% -14.3% -4% 34 0.55 1.8x 0.6 229.1 46%
GEV GE Vernova Inc. · 969.62 2.0% -6.0% -9.7% 43% 34 0.74 1.2x 6.6 39.6 25%
GLW ! Corning Incorporated 200.40 13.4% 5.1% 25.5% 122% 51 0.95 1.0x 10.6 47.4 -1%
GOOG Alphabet Inc. · 358.39 -3.8% -6.9% -5.6% 14% 32 0.83 1.3x 10.3 24.7 14%
HIMS Hims & Hers Health, Inc. · 27.51 -0.9% 9.2% 0.9% -18% 61 0.25 0.5x 2.7 21.4 -3%
HPE AVOID Hewlett Packard Enterpri 56.15 19.5% 50.9% 95.6% 134% 92 1.00 3.8x 2.1 13.9 -47%
ICHR ! Ichor Holdings 74.95 7.1% 1.6% 7.5% 267% 53 0.97 1.4x 2.7 28.7 2%
INTC Intel Corporation · 107.86 -1.3% -11.4% 12.6% 174% 36 0.80 1.0x 10.1 69.8 -18%
INTR Inter & Co. Inc. · 6.00 -2.8% -6.4% -16.8% -28% 41 0.05 2.2x 0.4 5.6 62%
IOT ! Samsara Inc. · 37.36 -3.1% 26.8% 22.1% 10% 77 0.57 1.0x 13.4 44.3 17%
KLAC ! KLA Corporation 2045.20 5.4% 4.5% 19.5% 61% 67 1.00 0.9x 20.4 41.0 -9%
LASR nLIGHT, Inc. · 76.36 8.2% -6.2% 10.0% 99% 42 0.88 0.7x 14.9 113.0 13%
LITE ! Lumentum Holdings Inc. 1029.15 13.7% 14.1% 5.4% 167% 53 0.98 1.0x 32.2 56.9 7%
LPTH LightPath Technologies, 16.08 -2.9% -8.7% 30.4% 37% 67 0.87 1.6x 16.1 123.7 -1%
LRCX ! Lam Research Corporation 334.41 5.5% 4.9% 29.3% 81% 71 1.00 0.9x 19.3 42.1 -6%
MKSI ! MKS Inc. 331.36 4.3% 1.0% 13.7% 97% 60 0.99 0.7x 5.5 22.2 9%
MOD ! Modine Manufacturing Com 307.08 6.4% 9.7% 18.2% 118% 58 1.00 1.4x 5.1 27.1 11%
MPWR ! Monolithic Power Systems 1624.99 5.4% 0.3% 3.3% 74% 52 0.96 1.1x 27.0 53.9 11%
MRVL AVOID Marvell Technology, Inc. 290.79 32.5% 46.3% 77.7% 226% 87 1.00 2.3x 29.2 47.6 -23%
MSFT Microsoft Corporation · 441.31 -4.2% 6.9% 6.9% -6% 66 0.47 1.3x 10.3 22.8 27%
MTSI ! MACOM Technology Solutio 382.35 8.1% -4.6% 31.1% 119% 55 0.91 1.4x 27.2 55.9 3%
MU AVOID Micron Technology, Inc. 1064.10 2.8% 14.6% 84.6% 238% 76 1.00 1.2x 20.6 10.1 -32%
NET ! Cloudflare, Inc. 272.64 0.7% 30.3% 21.6% 39% 90 1.00 1.1x 41.4 178.8 -14%
NFLX Netflix, Inc. · 83.33 -2.9% -4.6% -8.4% -8% 32 0.13 0.8x 7.5 21.7 37%
NTAP AVOID NetApp, Inc. 175.64 -2.3% 23.0% 58.3% 66% 91 0.95 2.8x 5.0 17.8 -7%
NTES NetEase, Inc. · 124.75 1.2% 0.7% 7.3% -15% 64 0.32 1.1x 0.7 11.7 30%
ON ! ON Semiconductor Corpora 128.64 6.4% 3.0% 26.1% 127% 69 1.00 1.1x 8.2 30.2 -18%
ONTO Onto Innovation Inc. · 278.01 8.7% 4.2% -7.2% 68% 50 0.86 1.1x 13.4 29.3 27%
OPTX ! Syntec Optics Holdings, 13.23 22.0% 11.0% 63.7% 323% 73 1.00 1.3x 19.4 nan nan%
ORCL ! Oracle Corporation 244.54 -1.5% 28.1% 35.6% 26% 80 0.57 1.1x 11.0 30.4 -0%
P Everpure, Inc. · 83.01 -1.7% -3.2% 14.1% 20% 50 0.67 2.0x 7.0 27.6 12%
PINS Pinterest, Inc. · 20.89 -2.2% 4.3% 0.2% -21% 52 0.23 1.4x 2.7 9.3 33%
PL AVOID Planet Labs PBC · 48.08 3.5% -4.8% 24.8% 136% 68 0.93 1.1x 55.7 -2136.9 -26%
SATS EchoStar Corporation · 123.55 -3.0% 0.9% 2.7% 10% 44 0.85 1.1x 2.4 -1083.8 11%
SMCI AVOID Super Micro Computer, In 50.17 7.0% 31.4% 79.7% 62% 86 0.74 1.6x 0.9 15.5 -25%
SMTC AVOID Semtech Corporation 166.63 11.4% 6.0% 55.6% 121% 67 1.00 1.8x 14.2 42.9 23%
SNAP Snap Inc. · 5.77 -1.5% -1.9% -6.5% -29% 57 0.29 0.9x 1.6 7.8 32%
SNDK ! Sandisk Corporation 1716.36 -2.6% 8.0% 36.7% 524% 67 0.97 0.5x 19.3 9.8 -6%
SOLS ! Solstice Advanced Materi 87.39 4.3% 1.5% 7.9% 78% 50 0.98 0.6x 3.5 27.9 1% ·
STNE StoneCo Ltd. · 11.24 -3.8% -1.0% 3.7% -7% 62 0.25 0.9x 0.2 4.4 58%
STX ! Seagate Technology Holdi 926.61 0.6% 6.4% 25.5% 223% 70 1.00 0.8x 18.9 35.0 -11%
TER ! Teradyne, Inc. 392.26 6.2% 4.4% 16.3% 89% 60 0.92 0.8x 16.2 41.3 -6%
TSLA Tesla, Inc. · 423.74 1.9% -3.8% 8.0% -3% 46 0.68 0.7x 16.3 168.8 -3%
TSM ! Taiwan Semiconductor Man 446.69 2.5% 5.7% 11.2% 40% 71 1.00 0.9x 0.6 22.9 5%
TTWO Take-Two Interactive Sof · 222.38 -2.0% 1.8% -1.2% -12% 47 0.45 1.5x 6.2 22.0 25%
U Unity Software Inc. · 30.75 -4.4% 10.8% 10.9% -31% 69 0.42 0.7x 7.0 23.0 13%
UBER Uber Technologies, Inc. · 71.66 -2.9% 1.3% -3.1% -14% 34 0.08 1.4x 2.7 16.4 46%
UCTT ! Ultra Clean Holdings, In 90.21 6.5% -1.5% 23.4% 230% 59 0.98 1.2x 2.0 23.9 16%
UPST Upstart Holdings, Inc. · 32.39 -3.6% 5.4% 1.0% -29% 67 0.14 1.0x 2.6 9.4 24%
VIAV ! Viavi Solutions Inc. 52.88 11.3% -0.3% 0.7% 191% 49 0.95 1.2x 9.6 41.3 22%
VICR ! Vicor Corporation 332.95 1.2% -3.7% 32.6% 185% 60 0.96 0.9x 35.6 60.0 -3%
VST Vistra Corp. · 157.97 2.1% -1.4% -1.8% -4% 60 0.28 0.8x 2.7 14.4 43%
WDC ! Western Digital Corporat 563.10 3.1% 6.1% 27.3% 200% 74 1.00 0.7x 16.5 32.0 -8%
WOLF AVOID Wolfspeed, Inc. 61.13 15.4% -3.4% 70.1% 223% 55 0.79 2.3x 4.1 -12.2 -35% ·
XP XP Inc. · 16.19 -2.5% -5.5% -12.5% 0% 31 0.07 0.9x 0.5 6.6 52%