conic.ai

CONVICTION PICKS

AVOID / TRIM

• MU — +11.7% today, RSI 64 reversal, ret_12_1 +594% — textbook FOMO trap. Avoiding the chase IS the call.
• MRVL — +57.7% month, RSI 65.6, fwd PE ~43, spike_only profile.
• ARM — Streak 6 hit 86% on avoid; +167% 3m residue, spike_only, multiple uninvestable.
• SMCI — Streak 5 hit 100% on avoid; no quality floor, -37%+ rolling drawdown.
• VRT — Downgraded from BUY to WATCH today — streak -6, hit 14%. Thesis keeps missing; need a higher-low confirmation before re-engaging.
• HPE — spike_only, F=4, +45.9% month, RSI 67 — payback ongoing.
• NTAP — RSI 69.4, +35% month, spike_only — wait for pullback.
• META — Streak 4 hit 80% on avoid; pos_52w 0.16, no turn yet.
• MSFT — pos_52w 0.19, RSI 38.6, share-loss-to-ORCL story holding.
• ESTC — spike_only, ret_12_1 -41.6% — bounce off broken name, not a turn.
• SMTC — +213% 12-1, RSI 57 — no price discipline.
• AMAT — +22% week, +26.7% month, RSI 76 — extended; today's +11.2% is the spike to fade, not chase.
• LRCX — +19.5% week, +22.7% month, RSI 68, pos_52w 1.0 — same pattern as AMAT; do not chase.
• ASML — +15.7% week, RSI 72, pos_52w 1.0 — extended.
• PL — F=2, profit margin -111%.
• ACMR — F=2 quality floor missing.
• WOLF — profit margin -73%, no F-score.
• CRCL — F=3 falling knife.
• CRWV — abs_mom False, profit margin -26%.
• AXTI — F=2, ret_12_1 +6235% mania residue.
• APLD — F=4, profit margin -59%.

POSITION PLAN & RISK exposure x1.0 · open P&L -0.3% · realized -5.5% · 1 open / 5 closed

COOLDOWN · no re-entry

• NVDA locked until 2026-06-12 (stop hit)

BACKTEST · $100k since inception paper book (with stops) vs the plan basket

VALIDATION / EDGE

BELIEF UPDATES · vs yesterday

• UPGRADE CSCO avoid→watch RSI 54.5 (down from 79 in carryover), fc 0.75, hqm_quality true. The pullback I was waiting for is starting. Not yet a buy but worth watching for a cleaner setup.
• DOWNGRADE AVGO buy→accumulate RSI rebounded to 43 from 38, hqm_quality true and fc 0.57 still solid, but streak -2 with hit 20% on prior calls. The thesis is right (custom ASIC + capex) but conviction was over-priced. Step down to accumulate until it confirms with a higher low.
• DOWNGRADE VRT buy→watch Streak -6, hit 14% — the thesis keeps missing. Still RSI 38, -19.5% month, fc 0.41 (mediocre), and crucially hqm_quality FALSE today. AI-power/cooling story is real but the price is not turning. Drop from buy to watch. Need a higher-low + volume confirmation before re-engaging. Do not add.
• KEEP TSM buy→buy Up 3% today but did NOT spike like the rest of SOX — that's the relative-strength signal. RSI 54.7 not extended, pos_52w 0.89, fc 0.83 (top of universe), hqm_quality true. Best fundamental + technical name in the watchlist. Keep buy, do not upgrade on a single green day.
• KEEP NVDA accumulate→accumulate RSI 39.5 still beat down, vs_sma200 +8.4 = uptrend intact, hqm_quality true, abs+ts momentum still passes per carryover. Today +2.2% is muted vs the rest of SOX which is HEALTHY — it didn't need to gap. Keep accumulating on weakness, don't load on this bounce.
• KEEP MU avoid→avoid +11.7% today vindicates yesterday's 'FOMO trap' avoid — this IS the FOMO. ret_12_1 +594%, RSI 64 after a -10% week reversal. Spike to chase, not a bottom to buy. Streak -3 (i.e. avoid was wrong on raw price 3 days) but the discipline is right: position-sizing into a +594% 12-1 name on a relief day is exactly what blows accounts up.
• KEEP MRVL avoid→avoid +57.7% month, +6.5% week, RSI 65.6, spike_only-style profile, fwd PE ~43. Hot money rotation name, no margin of safety. Avoid.
• KEEP ARM avoid→avoid Streak 6 hit 86% — the avoid thesis is compounding. Spike_only, multiple uninvestable. Continue.
• KEEP SMCI avoid→avoid Streak 5 hit 100%. -37.6% week from carryover, no quality floor. Best call on the board, keep avoiding.
• KEEP META avoid→avoid -4.1% week, RSI 37, pos_52w 0.16, abs_mom False. Cheap but no turn. Streak 4 hit 80%. Keep avoiding.
• KEEP MSFT avoid→avoid -6.3% week, RSI 38.6, pos_52w 0.19. Enterprise AI share loss thesis holding.
• KEEP HPE avoid→avoid +45.9% month, RSI 67.2, spike_only — payback continues to be the call. Streak 5 hit 71%.
• KEEP NTAP avoid→avoid RSI 69.4, pos_52w 0.76, +35% month, spike_only. Same story: wait for pullback.
• KEEP ESTC avoid→avoid +23.9% month, spike_only true, pos_52w 0.33, ret_12_1 -41.6%. Mean-reversion bounce off a busted name, not a turn.
• KEEP PL avoid→avoid F=2, profit margin -111%. Streak 6 hit 100% on avoid. Continue.
• KEEP ACMR avoid→avoid F=2 quality floor missing. Today's semi tide lifted it but the fundamentals haven't changed.
• KEEP WOLF avoid→avoid -35% week, no F-score, profit margin -73%. Streak 4 hit 80%.
• KEEP SMTC avoid→avoid +233% 12-1, +17% month, RSI 57. hqm_quality true but no price discipline; chasing the parabolic is what the carryover warned about.
• KEEP CRCL avoid→avoid F=3 falling knife. Continue.
• KEEP CRWV avoid→avoid abs_mom False, profit margin -26%. Streak 2 hit 100%.
• KEEP AXTI avoid→avoid F=2, profit margin -15%, ret_12_1 +6235% mania residue. Continue.
• KEEP APLD avoid→avoid F=4, profit margin -59%. Continue.

VS PRIOR DAYS

Yesterday's calls are still PENDING (3-session maturity not hit). Looking at the scorecard: matured buy/accumulate beat-rate 33% with high conviction at 17% — I have been over-claiming edge on bounces. Today's discipline: refused to add VRT despite RSI 38 (streak -6, the thesis is broken), refused to upgrade TSM despite being right (single green day), downgraded AVGO from buy to accumulate to match real track record. Avoid book is the actual edge so far (SMCI 100%, ARM 86%, META 80%, ACMR/WOLF 80%+).

MACRO & REGIME

X / FINTWIT TRENDS

• SOX bounce is the day's narrative; fintwit split between 'RSI5=17, bottom is in' vs 'SpaceX $150B drains tech liquidity, rotation risk'
• SemiAnalysis / Dylan Patel keep pumping out concrete inference perf data (GB300 NVL72, MI355X, InferenceX) — capex thesis structurally intact
• Tactical fintwit chasing MU / single-day rebounds; no genuine new edge, mostly noise
• Geopolitical: Iran/Gulf flow risk surfacing again (oil infra), worth watching as a left-tail to the risk-on regime

FULL WATCHLIST · reference only, descriptive not a buy list