conic.ai

A daily discipline tool: what to do, what to ignore · 2026-06-01 · 98 stocks · 00:50 ET
SPY 0.26%
QQQ 0.60%
SMH 1.48%
VIX 16.0 4.5%
TODAYHold the book; only one new accumulate (AVGO) and one belief upgrade (NVDA). No chase on extended winners.
RISK-ON Constructive - but constructive is not a reason to chase.
This system has NO statistically validated edge yet (3 sessions). Treat every pick as a hypothesis, not a recommendation.

MARKET READ

Risk-on tape (4/5 votes): SPY +1.72% wk / +5.54% mo, QQQ +3.51% / +11.23%, SMH leading at +5.46% / +19.95% and +56% above 200d. VIX still sub-20, breadth healthy (78.6% above 50d, 85.7% above 200d), 10y-3m curve +85bp positive, credit the only soft vote. Rotation is concentrated and narrow: memory/AI-server second-tier (MU +91% 1m, ARM +94% 1m, HPE +65% 1m, NTAP +60% 1m with RSI 94) is going parabolic while the megacap quality anchors (NVDA, AVGO, MSFT, META) are merely participating. EM up +6.4% wk, oil -3.9% wk, BTC -5.9% wk, gold -2.9% mo - rotation continues OUT of safe-haven and crypto INTO equity AI beta. This is late-cycle euphoria in tier-2 names, not new institutional buying. Do not chase; tighten quality.

CONVICTION PICKS

NVDA MEDIUM ACCUMULATE
Upgrade from watch. HQM quality+abs-mom pass, RSI 54, only AI mega still cool. Stargate Michigan + neocloud warrant strategy + networking +199% mean NVDA is the structural planner of AI buildout, not just selling chips. Trim if it tags RSI 70 on weekly without a fundamental catalyst.
CHAIN · upgrade of existing WATCH belief from 2026-05-30
KILL · Kill if loses 20d SMA on volume or fails to make a higher high in 2 weeks; trim half if a major hyperscaler announces in-house ASIC win-share above expectations.
VRT MEDIUM ACCUMULATE
Carryover continuation. Cleanest washed-out high-quality datacenter-power name (RSI 28.8, 1m -1.5%) while every fintwit infra narrative this week points at power/cooling/grid as the binding constraint. HQM quality TRUE, abs-mom TRUE, fcomp 0.46, target +16.5%. Adding while the rest of the tape is paying 52w highs.
CHAIN · keep existing ACCUMULATE belief; add on weakness
KILL · Kill below chandelier stop or if a major hyperscaler guides capex cut. Stop ~10% below entry per ATR sizing.
META HIGH ACCUMULATE
Carryover continuation. Still only 0.28 of 52w range, fwd PE 16.6, F-score 5, +37.7% analyst upside, RSI 50.8. The single best risk/reward in megacap. Today's fintwit-flagged distribution is a yellow flag, not a thesis-killer - it's why we accumulate, not chase.
CHAIN · keep existing BUY/HIGH belief
KILL · Kill on a daily close below the 200d SMA or any guide-down on AI capex ROI.
AVGO MEDIUM ACCUMULATE
New pick. F-score 8 (best-in-class quality), factor_composite 0.61, HQM quality TRUE, abs-mom TRUE, RSI 63 (not stretched), 1m +9% / 1w +9% - moving in proportion to the regime, not parabolic. Custom-silicon + networking franchise rides the same Stargate-style buildout NVDA does, with a real dividend and lower beta. Complement to NVDA, not a replacement.
CHAIN · new position; pairs with NVDA upgrade as the diversified AI-infra leg
KILL · Kill on F-score drop or a hyperscaler in-housing the networking stack; trim half if RSI 75+ on weekly without earnings beat.

AVOID / TRIM

  • SMCI — RSI 81, 1m +73%, target -20.8%; parabolic with no quality
  • MU — 52w pos 1.00, RSI 71, +91% in a month; HBM priced
  • ARM — RSI 85, fwd PE 133, target -42.8%; pure mom
  • NTAP — RSI 94 - most extended name in universe
  • HPE — RSI 86, 1m +65%; AI-server catch-up exhausted
  • PL — fwd PE -2063, earnings-spike hangover
  • ESTC — Downgrade: spike_only=TRUE, RSI 83.5, +40% 1m
  • ACMR — spike_only=TRUE, +57% 1m then -5% 1w; failed continuation
  • WOLF — spike_only=TRUE, abs-mom FAIL, -28% 1w; falling knife
  • SMTC — spike_only=TRUE, +39% 1m then -9% 1w; reversal not confirmed
CONCENTRATION · This book is effectively one AI-capex factor; correlated names do not diversify each other. (4 names, top sector 78.1%)

POSITION PLAN & RISK exposure x1.0 · open P&L +0.0% · realized -1.0% · 4 open / 1 closed · sizing uses priors - no validated edge yet

TKRWEIGHT?HRP / equal-weight relative allocation scaled by a regime-throttled gross-exposure budget, capped 20% per name.KELLY?Conviction tier shown for transparency only - there is no realized hit-rate yet, so it does NOT drive the weight.HRP?Hierarchical Risk Parity weight from real daily returns: correlation-aware, so correlated names share the risk budget.STOP?Initial stop = entry - 2x ATR. Volatility-adaptive risk per share.TRAIL?Chandelier exit: highest-high(22d) - 3x ATR. Daily trailing stop once in profit.SHARES?ATR-based size: shares so a 2x ATR move = 1% of a 100k notional.QUAL?Piotroski F-score gate: pass (>=6) / neutral / fail (<=4, blocked) / unknown.STRAT?Absolute-momentum read: names failing the 12m>risk-free gate are tagged mean-reversion and sized down, not dressed as momentum.
NVDA10%12%30%207.98211.1861unknownstrong 12m · momentum
VRT10%12%12%286.82321.3127unknownstrong 12m · momentum
META15%17%38%569.95589.5132neutralweak 12m mom · mean reversion
AVGO17%12%21%425.44408.1828passstrong 12m · momentum

COOLDOWN · no re-entry

  • META locked until 2026-06-08 (stop hit)

BACKTEST · $100k since inception paper, daily rebalance to the plan

Summary stats unlock at 2/10 sessions. The curves below are real but still too short to read as performance.
100k101k
Strategy (follow the plan)SMH · just buy the sectorSPY · broad marketCash · do nothing
Hypothetical paper portfolio reconstructed from the plan you would have followed each day; cash earns 0%. Not real fills, not advice, no slippage/fees modeled.
TRACK RECORD · BUILDING3/6 sessions · 0/8 matured calls before a verified track record shows.

VALIDATION / EDGE

Measuring, not yet validated (2 sessions). IC, walk-forward, benchmark-vs-SMH and the tearsheet appear here once each has enough real history.

VS PRIOR DAYS

0 calls matured at 3-session horizon yet (3 real sessions in the ledger), so no track-record yet. Decisions today are made on thesis change vs the prior briefing: MSFT downgraded (move happened), ESTC downgraded (spike), NVDA upgraded (quality+macro confluence), all six AVOIDs kept (got MORE extended, validating the call directionally even before formal grading).

MACRO & REGIME

RISK-ONrisk-on 4/5VIX 16.01 normal (14-20)10y-3m 0.85breadth 85.7% >200dT-bill 3.62%

Indices (1w)

SPY1.72%
QQQ3.51%
SMH5.46%
IWM1.34%

Rates / credit

3m T-bill3.62%
10y4.47%
10y-3m0.85%
HY-IG 1m-0.63%

International (1w)

DXY-0.02%
EM6.40%
China-0.53%
Japan1.44%
Europe0.09%
Gold-0.63%
Oil-3.86%
Bitcoin-5.89%

X / FINTWIT TRENDS

  • Power/cooling/grid is the binding constraint for AI buildout, not GPUs - @sidelined_cap, @noisetoalpha, AISpaceDecoder all converging
  • Stargate/OpenAI x Oracle 1GW+ Michigan campus expands the $450B/3y capex narrative; DTE Energy + battery storage flagged
  • NVDA neocloud equity-warrant playbook ($IREN, $NBIS) reframes Jensen as 'industrial planner', not chip supplier
  • Networking revenue +199% YoY at NVDA is the under-discussed signal - reinforces AVGO/MRVL thesis
  • Mom-and-pop names (MU, ARM, NTAP, HPE) trending parabolic on retail chase - contra signal, not confirmation

FULL WATCHLIST · reference only, descriptive not a buy list

TKRNAME MOM-C?Momentum consistency gate: not bottom-quartile in ANY of 1w/1m/3m/6m (a consistent trend, not a single-window spike). NOT a fundamental-quality measure. Lightning = spike-only, do not chase. BLEND?Descriptive blend of technical + fundamental percentiles. NOT a buy signal and NOT the default sort - just a reference number. Click to sort if you want. PX 1D1W1M YTD?Year-to-date return: % change since Jan 1 this year. 1Y?1-year price trend (weekly sampled). Black line = up over the year, gray = down. Click to sort by 6-month return. RSI?Relative Strength Index (14d). Momentum oscillator 0-100. Above 70 = overbought, below 30 = oversold. 52W?Position in the 52-week range. 0.00 = at the yearly low, 1.00 = at the yearly high. VOL?Volume surge: last 5-day average volume divided by 90-day average. Above 1.0x = trading heavier than usual. P/S?Price-to-Sales ratio: market cap divided by trailing 12-month revenue. Lower = cheaper on sales. FPE?Forward P/E: price divided by next-12-month expected earnings per share. Lower = cheaper on forward earnings. TGT?Analyst target upside: mean analyst price target vs current price, in %. Negative = trading ABOVE the average target. 20/50/200?Price vs the 20, 50 and 200-day moving averages. Up arrow = price above that average (uptrend), down = below.
★ AVGO ! Broadcom Inc. 459.97 3.0% 9.0% 9.2% 33% 63 1.00 1.1x 31.9 24.8 5%
★ META Meta Platforms, Inc. · 600.47 -5.1% -1.9% -1.4% -8% 51 0.28 1.2x 7.1 16.6 38%
★ NVDA NVIDIA Corporation 224.36 6.3% 4.4% 13.1% 19% 54 0.89 1.1x 21.4 17.7 32%
★ VRT Vertiv Holdings, LLC 323.44 2.4% -0.1% -1.5% 84% 29 0.80 0.8x 11.5 36.6 16%
AAOI Applied Optoelectronics, 185.67 17.2% 4.5% 1.2% 369% 50 0.82 1.1x 29.4 38.9 -19%
AAPL ! Apple Inc. 306.31 -1.8% -0.7% 9.4% 13% 71 0.95 1.1x 10.0 31.9 1%
ACMR AVOID ACM Research, Inc. 82.05 -5.2% -5.1% 57.3% 83% 69 0.85 1.7x 5.9 36.4 -2%
AEHR Aehr Test Systems · 93.62 1.4% -14.8% 0.6% 322% 44 0.84 0.8x 65.1 624.1 -32%
AEIS Advanced Energy Industri · 294.65 -2.5% -13.2% -24.2% 33% 29 0.66 1.6x 6.2 25.1 34%
AFRM Affirm Holdings, Inc. · 72.91 -1.0% 5.3% 8.0% -2% 63 0.61 0.9x 6.1 19.3 14%
AGX Argan, Inc. · 646.47 -3.1% -3.6% -7.9% 99% 43 0.82 0.7x 9.6 43.3 -27%
ALMU Aeluma, Inc. 26.21 21.5% 7.6% 2.5% 47% 47 0.75 1.2x 92.3 -106.3 9%
AMAT ! Applied Materials, Inc. 458.17 1.8% 0.7% 17.9% 71% 56 1.00 0.9x 12.5 28.3 12%
AMD ! Advanced Micro Devices, 510.13 -1.2% 1.2% 41.5% 128% 64 0.98 0.8x 22.2 39.0 -7%
AMKR ! Amkor Technology, Inc. 72.75 4.6% -1.0% 2.3% 70% 44 0.91 1.3x 2.6 29.7 4%
AMZN Amazon.com, Inc. · 261.26 -3.5% -1.5% -2.6% 15% 43 0.82 0.9x 3.8 26.5 20%
ANET ! Arista Networks, Inc. 170.72 7.1% 8.0% -1.1% 28% 79 0.92 1.1x 22.1 38.4 10%
APH ! Amphenol Corporation · 146.34 -1.6% 4.9% 2.8% 5% 72 0.74 1.2x 7.0 26.0 24%
APLD ! Applied Digital Corporat 47.94 1.4% 6.2% 42.9% 71% 55 0.96 0.9x 42.9 -50.5 35%
ARM AVOID Arm Holdings plc 408.85 15.7% 27.3% 93.6% 256% 85 1.00 1.5x 88.8 133.6 -43%
ASML ! ASML Holding N.V. - New 1628.57 1.0% -0.2% 14.1% 40% 57 1.00 0.7x 18.6 34.0 2%
ASX ! ASE Technology Holding C 38.17 -0.5% -2.0% 20.8% 126% 58 0.92 1.2x 0.1 24.1 1%
AXTI AXT Inc · 109.55 6.2% -17.4% 14.1% 554% 44 0.78 0.8x 74.7 145.7 -20%
BE Bloom Energy Corporation · 273.49 -4.0% -9.6% -5.9% 177% 47 0.88 0.9x 31.8 62.9 -4%
CAMT Camtek Ltd. · 163.09 -5.0% -6.7% -12.6% 41% 29 0.69 0.9x 15.0 36.0 15%
CEG Constellation Energy Cor · 265.70 -7.7% -11.9% -13.5% -27% 36 0.12 1.3x 3.2 19.5 39%
CIEN ! Ciena Corporation · 569.49 -1.9% -5.5% 6.4% 131% 47 0.94 0.8x 15.7 64.9 -19%
CIFR ! Cipher Digital Inc. 24.01 1.5% 4.3% 40.9% 48% 63 0.95 0.9x 46.8 35.8 32%
COHR Coherent Corp. 362.88 0.4% -4.8% 10.1% 87% 44 0.87 0.8x 10.8 44.8 5%
CRCL Circle Internet Group, I · 104.97 -7.1% 0.8% 5.3% 26% 28 0.26 0.9x 9.8 47.1 39%
CRWV CoreWeave, Inc. 124.82 14.0% 17.9% 4.9% 57% 58 0.51 1.1x 10.9 -199.1 11%
CSCO ! Cisco Systems, Inc. 121.33 0.8% 2.5% 32.1% 60% 80 1.00 1.1x 7.9 25.4 3%
DKNG DraftKings Inc. · 26.33 7.5% 10.6% 14.5% -26% 61 0.20 1.2x 2.1 15.4 32%
DLR Digital Realty Trust, In · 184.96 -2.7% -4.5% -7.8% 20% 32 0.67 1.0x 10.5 64.6 18%
DOCS Doximity, Inc. · 22.55 5.4% 15.5% -9.7% -48% 38 0.08 1.0x 6.4 14.1 12%
ENTG Entegris, Inc. · 135.73 -2.2% -4.5% -4.6% 52% 37 0.77 0.9x 6.4 29.4 18%
EQIX Equinix, Inc. · 1050.77 -1.6% -2.5% -2.7% 39% 37 0.85 1.1x 10.9 54.7 14%
ESTC AVOID Elastic N.V. 68.08 5.2% 25.1% 40.1% -6% 84 0.48 1.9x 4.1 18.7 6%
ETN Eaton Corporation, PLC · 400.16 -0.1% -0.7% -5.7% 23% 41 0.73 1.0x 5.4 25.5 13%
FN Fabrinet · 622.31 -4.9% -8.6% -11.9% 30% 46 0.76 1.6x 5.3 36.0 20%
FORM FormFactor, Inc. · 115.07 -7.6% -15.7% -16.2% 94% 26 0.69 1.0x 10.7 42.3 26%
FSLY Fastly, Inc. · 19.08 7.4% 8.4% -32.0% 87% 47 0.47 0.5x 4.6 48.4 26%
FTAI FTAI Aviation Ltd. · 247.82 -4.8% -2.2% 3.5% 18% 37 0.69 0.6x 9.0 21.5 41%
GDS GDS Holdings Limited · 35.51 0.2% 4.5% -16.3% -7% 25 0.50 1.8x 0.6 220.4 53%
GEV GE Vernova Inc. · 950.11 -1.9% -11.2% -10.6% 40% 30 0.71 1.1x 6.5 38.8 28%
GLW Corning Incorporated · 176.68 -2.5% -9.8% 11.8% 96% 33 0.80 0.9x 9.3 41.8 12%
GOOG Alphabet Inc. · 372.58 -1.0% -3.2% -2.8% 18% 38 0.89 1.1x 10.7 25.7 11%
HIMS Hims & Hers Health, Inc. · 27.75 6.1% 16.4% 1.2% -17% 45 0.26 0.5x 2.7 21.6 -4%
HPE AVOID Hewlett Packard Enterpri 47.06 9.4% 23.7% 64.7% 96% 86 1.00 2.3x 1.7 17.2 -36%
ICHR Ichor Holdings 70.01 -2.1% -3.7% 8.7% 243% 39 0.89 1.2x 2.5 26.8 10%
INTC Intel Corporation · 109.33 -4.7% -11.5% 9.7% 178% 31 0.82 1.1x 10.2 70.8 -20%
INTR Inter & Co. Inc. · 6.17 0.0% -2.7% -18.0% -26% 54 0.09 2.2x 0.4 5.8 57%
IOT ! Samsara Inc. 38.58 10.3% 23.8% 26.5% 14% 78 0.62 0.9x 13.9 45.7 14%
KLAC ! KLA Corporation 1940.04 1.0% -3.5% 12.5% 53% 58 0.94 0.9x 19.4 38.9 -4%
LASR nLIGHT, Inc. · 70.58 -4.8% -13.5% -0.6% 84% 32 0.79 0.7x 13.7 104.5 22%
LITE Lumentum Holdings Inc. · 905.00 5.9% -0.6% -4.7% 134% 36 0.85 1.0x 28.3 50.0 22%
LPTH LightPath Technologies, 16.55 -2.5% 1.9% 20.8% 41% 66 0.90 1.5x 16.6 127.3 -4%
LRCX ! Lam Research Corporation 317.12 -0.3% -1.7% 23.5% 72% 61 0.98 0.9x 18.3 39.9 -1%
MKSI ! MKS Inc. · 317.62 -2.0% -4.9% 13.7% 89% 49 0.93 0.7x 5.3 21.3 13%
MOD ! Modine Manufacturing Com 288.43 3.4% -2.5% 8.1% 105% 51 0.96 1.8x 4.8 25.4 14%
MPWR Monolithic Power Systems · 1542.39 -1.5% -7.3% -2.6% 65% 41 0.88 1.3x 25.6 51.1 17%
MRVL ! Marvell Technology, Inc. 219.43 7.0% 5.4% 33.0% 146% 73 1.00 1.9x 22.0 36.1 0%
MSFT ! Microsoft Corporation · 460.52 2.3% 10.7% 11.4% -2% 77 0.57 1.3x 10.7 23.8 22%
MTSI MACOM Technology Solutio 353.79 -3.0% -13.6% 24.5% 102% 46 0.81 1.4x 25.1 51.7 11%
MU AVOID Micron Technology, Inc. 1034.74 6.6% 15.5% 90.8% 228% 71 1.00 1.4x 20.1 9.8 -32%
NET ! Cloudflare, Inc. 270.77 12.0% 24.5% 24.5% 38% 85 1.00 1.0x 41.1 177.5 -14%
NFLX Netflix, Inc. · 85.85 -0.2% -2.1% -6.7% -6% 52 0.17 0.7x 7.7 22.3 33%
NTAP AVOID NetApp, Inc. 179.70 3.1% 29.3% 60.3% 70% 94 1.00 3.0x 5.1 18.3 -9%
NTES NetEase, Inc. · 123.27 0.4% -0.1% 4.5% -16% 63 0.29 1.3x 0.7 11.6 32%
ON ! ON Semiconductor Corpora 120.92 0.2% -4.8% 17.4% 113% 62 0.93 1.2x 7.8 28.3 -13%
ONTO Onto Innovation Inc. · 256.04 -0.9% -6.6% -12.6% 54% 32 0.76 1.0x 12.4 27.0 38%
OPTX Syntec Optics Holdings, 10.84 8.9% -5.1% 25.8% 246% 64 0.90 1.2x 15.9 nan nan%
ORCL ! Oracle Corporation 248.07 9.9% 28.5% 44.4% 28% 77 0.59 1.0x 11.1 30.9 -2%
P Everpure, Inc. · 84.50 6.3% -4.4% 18.0% 22% 47 0.70 2.1x 7.1 28.1 10%
PINS Pinterest, Inc. · 21.38 6.6% 10.6% 5.7% -20% 54 0.25 1.3x 2.7 9.5 30%
PL AVOID Planet Labs PBC 46.44 -9.2% -3.9% 25.8% 128% 61 0.90 1.2x 53.8 -2063.8 -24%
SATS EchoStar Corporation · 127.42 -1.4% 3.5% 3.4% 14% 48 0.89 1.3x 2.5 -1117.7 8%
SMCI AVOID Super Micro Computer, In 46.88 1.7% 26.4% 73.1% 51% 81 0.66 1.5x 0.8 14.5 -21%
SMTC AVOID Semtech Corporation 149.58 -1.9% -9.0% 38.7% 99% 57 0.87 2.3x 12.8 38.5 37%
SNAP Snap Inc. · 5.87 2.8% 2.1% -6.7% -28% 54 0.30 0.8x 1.6 7.9 30%
SNDK ! Sandisk Corporation 1761.43 3.9% 10.8% 48.4% 540% 63 1.00 0.6x 19.8 10.0 -9%
SOLS Solstice Advanced Materi 83.78 -0.5% -0.9% 4.1% 70% 47 0.90 0.6x 3.3 26.8 5% ·
STNE ! StoneCo Ltd. · 11.69 2.1% 3.5% 5.4% -4% 70 0.32 0.9x 0.2 4.6 51%
STX ! Seagate Technology Holdi 921.26 4.7% 8.9% 26.7% 221% 64 1.00 0.9x 18.8 34.8 -10%
TER Teradyne, Inc. · 369.47 -1.3% -5.1% 7.0% 78% 51 0.86 0.9x 15.3 38.8 0%
TSLA Tesla, Inc. · 415.88 -4.6% -4.1% 6.4% -5% 39 0.64 0.7x 16.0 165.7 -1%
TSM ! Taiwan Semiconductor Man 436.05 4.2% 5.8% 9.7% 37% 64 1.00 0.9x 0.6 22.3 7%
TTWO Take-Two Interactive Sof · 226.98 1.3% 2.9% 5.1% -10% 55 0.51 1.5x 6.3 22.4 23%
U ! Unity Software Inc. · 32.17 5.6% 20.2% 18.6% -27% 80 0.47 0.8x 7.3 24.1 8%
UBER Uber Technologies, Inc. · 73.81 4.8% 5.3% -1.7% -11% 41 0.15 1.4x 2.8 16.9 42%
UCTT ! Ultra Clean Holdings, In 84.70 -1.0% -3.2% 13.5% 210% 49 0.90 1.0x 1.8 22.5 23%
UPST Upstart Holdings, Inc. · 33.61 -0.5% 9.8% 2.7% -27% 69 0.16 1.0x 2.7 9.8 20%
VIAV Viavi Solutions Inc. · 47.49 -2.2% -11.7% -14.2% 162% 31 0.83 1.3x 8.6 37.1 36%
VICR ! Vicor Corporation 328.85 -1.8% -1.2% 22.5% 181% 54 0.94 1.1x 35.1 59.3 -2%
VST Vistra Corp. · 154.75 -3.4% -6.0% -0.3% -6% 52 0.24 1.0x 2.7 14.1 46%
WDC ! Western Digital Corporat 546.20 2.8% 4.1% 26.6% 191% 59 1.00 0.8x 16.0 31.0 -5%
WOLF AVOID Wolfspeed, Inc. 53.10 -10.4% -27.8% 44.5% 181% 52 0.65 2.4x 3.6 -10.6 -25% ·
XP XP Inc. · 16.60 -0.4% -3.6% -12.9% 3% 33 0.13 0.8x 0.5 6.8 47%