conic.ai

A daily discipline tool: what to do, what to ignore · 2026-05-30 · 98 stocks · 21:11 ET
SPY 0.25%
QQQ 0.37%
SMH -0.15%
VIX 15.3 -2.7%
TODAY3 new buy candidates - open the PLAN tab for sizing and stops. Size by the plan, not by feel.
RISK-ON Constructive - but constructive is not a reason to chase.
This system has NO statistically validated edge yet (2 sessions). Treat every pick as a hypothesis, not a recommendation.

MARKET READ

Weekend carry: no new session since Friday's close, so prices and the tape are unchanged from yesterday (SPY +0.25%, QQQ +0.37%, SMH -0.15%, VIX 15.3). The regime read is identical and still holds: AI infra is in a late-stage catch-up phase. Leaders (NVDA/AVGO) sideways while second-tier names (MU +88% 1m, SMCI +68%, ARM +68%, NTAP RSI 94, HPE +50%) stay parabolic with analyst targets 20-35% BELOW spot. No conviction changes warranted without new price data; the only real update is a quality-gate correction on ESTC (see belief_updates). Treat this as continuation, not a fresh call. The real test of the book comes Monday.

CONVICTION PICKS

META HIGH BUY
Best risk/reward in megacap. Sitting at 0.41 of 52w range while every other AI name is at 0.9-1.0, fwd PE 17.5, revenue growth 33%, +30.7% analyst upside, top-3 AI capex spender. RSI 64 = room to run. The laggard the rotation should broaden into.
CHAIN · Continuation of yesterday's high-conviction buy; unchanged on weekend data.
KILL · Kill if META loses its 50-day (~RSI breaks <45 with price under SMA50) or fwd PE re-rates above 22 without an earnings beat.
MSFT HIGH ACCUMULATE
The only hyperscaler still at 0.52 of 52w range, fwd PE 23, +24.5% upside, 1m +10.7%. Cleanest megacap AI exposure without the parabolic risk of the second tier.
CHAIN · Continuation of yesterday's accumulate; unchanged.
KILL · Kill if RSI pushes >80 (parabolic) or Azure growth guidance disappoints next print.
VRT MEDIUM ACCUMULATE
Washed-out datacenter power/cooling (RSI 40, -3.6% 1w) while the underlying capex/power-constraint thesis keeps compounding across SemiAnalysis + fintwit. Contrarian entry into a structural winner that the market just rotated out of.
CHAIN · Continuation of yesterday's accumulate; the rotation-OUT of power is the setup, not a reason to abandon.
KILL · Kill if VRT breaks the recent low on rising volume, or AI-capex guidance from hyperscalers turns down.
NVDA LOW WATCH
HQM quality PASS, RSI 46, basing at 0.76 of 52w while everything else is extended. Best-in-class fundamentals (85% rev growth, +40.6% target upside). Waiting for a confirmed base/turn to upgrade.
CHAIN · Unchanged watch; the one quality-momentum name not yet extended.
KILL · Drop from watch if it loses SMA50 and 2w return stays negative; upgrade to accumulate on a reclaim of SMA20 with volume.
ESTC LOW WATCH
Genuine multi-week reversal (1w +18%, 2w +28%, 1m +39%) and still only 0.42 of 52w range, BUT the HQM gate now flags it spike_only (fails consistency). Demoted from buy to watch on our own discipline — needs to prove it's a trend, not a single-window pop.
CHAIN · DOWNGRADE from yesterday's buy. Documented in belief_updates.
KILL · Re-add as buy only if it holds gains and HQM quality flips to pass; kill if it gives back the breakout (back below 1m base).

AVOID / TRIM

  • MU — 1m +88%, RSI 70, 52w pos 1.00, target -30.6% below spot. Textbook extended second-tier.
  • SMCI — 1w +30%, 1m +68%, RSI 74, target -19.5% below spot. Parabolic catch-up.
  • ARM — RSI 81, fwd PE 115, target -33.8% below spot. Pure momentum, no margin of safety.
  • NTAP — RSI 93.6, most extended in the universe, target -30.4%. Mean-reversion candidate.
  • HPE — RSI 81, 1m +50%, target -30.5%. AI-server catch-up at exhaustion.
  • PL — RSI 83, 52w pos 0.99, target -30.6%. Earnings spike not sustainable.
CONCENTRATION · This book is effectively one AI-capex factor; correlated names do not diversify each other. (3 names, top sector 37.7%)

POSITION PLAN & RISK exposure x1.0 · open P&L +0.0% · realized +0.0% · 3 open / 0 closed · sizing uses priors - no validated edge yet

TKRWEIGHT?HRP / equal-weight relative allocation scaled by a regime-throttled gross-exposure budget, capped 20% per name.KELLY?Conviction tier shown for transparency only - there is no realized hit-rate yet, so it does NOT drive the weight.HRP?Hierarchical Risk Parity weight from real daily returns: correlation-aware, so correlated names share the risk budget.STOP?Initial stop = entry - 2x ATR. Volatility-adaptive risk per share.TRAIL?Chandelier exit: highest-high(22d) - 3x ATR. Daily trailing stop once in profit.SHARES?ATR-based size: shares so a 2x ATR move = 1% of a 100k notional.QUAL?Piotroski F-score gate: pass (>=6) / neutral / fail (<=4, blocked) / unknown.STRAT?Absolute-momentum read: names failing the 12m>risk-free gate are tagged mean-reversion and sized down, not dressed as momentum.
META5%17%33%605.51628.6237unknownweak 12m mom · mean reversion
MSFT5%17%33%426.91415.2542unknownweak 12m mom · mean reversion
VRT10%12%33%276.73317.7625unknownstrong 12m · momentum

BACKTEST · $100k since inception

Building. The equity curve - your daily plan vs just buying SMH, SPY, or holding cash - starts plotting once a few real trading sessions accumulate.
TRACK RECORD · BUILDING2/6 sessions · 0/8 matured calls before a verified track record shows.

VALIDATION / EDGE

Measuring, not yet validated (1 sessions). IC, walk-forward, benchmark-vs-SMH and the tearsheet appear here once each has enough real history.

VS PRIOR DAYS

No new trading session since Friday (weekend run), so yesterday's calls cannot be graded yet — scorecard shows 0% only because prices are identical, not because calls failed. The substantive change today is self-correcting ESTC from buy to watch after the HQM quality gate flagged it spike_only; this is the Markov loop working as intended (our own rule overrides yesterday's conviction). Everything else carries forward unchanged. Monday's close is the first real grade.

MACRO & REGIME

RISK-ONrisk-on 4/5VIX 15.32 normal (14-20)10y-3m 0.87breadth 92.9% >200dT-bill 3.59%

Indices (1w)

SPY1.85%
QQQ3.33%
SMH5.47%
IWM2.81%

Rates / credit

3m T-bill3.59%
10y4.45%
10y-3m0.87%
HY-IG 1m-0.22%

International (1w)

DXY-0.25%
EM3.89%
China-2.34%
Japan1.74%
Europe0.28%
Gold0.03%
Oil-9.44%
Bitcoin-5.47%

X / FINTWIT TRENDS

  • Datacenter power/cooling remains the dominant fintwit narrative (VRT, GEV, CEG, VST) — supports the VRT contrarian thesis.
  • Second-tier semis/storage (MU, SMCI, ARM, NTAP) parabolic moves drawing 'late-cycle blow-off' warnings — consistent with our avoid list.
  • AI capex framed as the lifeline propping up GDP (per @infraa_) — structurally bullish infra, but the trade is crowded in the extended names.
  • Rotation chatter: money leaving optics/power into anything 'AI-server' — the exact catch-up trade we're fading.

FULL WATCHLIST · reference only, descriptive not a buy list

TKRNAME MOM-C?Momentum consistency gate: not bottom-quartile in ANY of 1w/1m/3m/6m (a consistent trend, not a single-window spike). NOT a fundamental-quality measure. Lightning = spike-only, do not chase. BLEND?Descriptive blend of technical + fundamental percentiles. NOT a buy signal and NOT the default sort - just a reference number. Click to sort if you want. PX 1D1W1M YTD?Year-to-date return: % change since Jan 1 this year. 1Y?1-year price trend (weekly sampled). Black line = up over the year, gray = down. Click to sort by 6-month return. RSI?Relative Strength Index (14d). Momentum oscillator 0-100. Above 70 = overbought, below 30 = oversold. 52W?Position in the 52-week range. 0.00 = at the yearly low, 1.00 = at the yearly high. VOL?Volume surge: last 5-day average volume divided by 90-day average. Above 1.0x = trading heavier than usual. P/S?Price-to-Sales ratio: market cap divided by trailing 12-month revenue. Lower = cheaper on sales. FPE?Forward P/E: price divided by next-12-month expected earnings per share. Lower = cheaper on forward earnings. TGT?Analyst target upside: mean analyst price target vs current price, in %. Negative = trading ABOVE the average target. 20/50/200?Price vs the 20, 50 and 200-day moving averages. Up arrow = price above that average (uptrend), down = below.
★ ESTC ! Elastic N.V. 64.70 12.3% 18.0% 39.3% -11% 75 0.42 1.7x 3.9 17.8 16%
★ META Meta Platforms, Inc. · 632.51 -0.4% 3.6% 3.4% -3% 64 0.41 1.0x 7.5 17.5 31%
★ MSFT ! Microsoft Corporation · 450.24 5.4% 7.6% 10.7% -4% 72 0.52 1.1x 10.5 23.3 25%
★ NVDA NVIDIA Corporation 211.14 -1.5% -1.9% 5.8% 12% 46 0.76 1.1x 20.2 16.7 41%
★ VRT Vertiv Holdings, LLC · 315.71 0.5% -3.6% -3.9% 80% 40 0.77 0.8x 11.2 35.7 19%
AAOI Applied Optoelectronics, · 158.41 -6.3% -12.7% -3.6% 300% 53 0.69 1.0x 25.1 33.2 -4%
AAPL ! Apple Inc. 312.06 -0.1% 1.0% 15.1% 15% 84 1.00 1.1x 10.2 32.5 -0%
ACMR ! ACM Research, Inc. 86.56 -6.8% 18.0% 67.5% 93% 79 0.91 1.7x 6.2 38.4 -9%
AEHR Aehr Test Systems · 92.33 -7.7% -2.8% 2.0% 317% 47 0.82 0.9x 64.2 615.5 -31%
AEIS Advanced Energy Industri · 302.18 -4.7% -7.0% -21.3% 36% 30 0.68 1.5x 6.3 25.7 30%
AFRM Affirm Holdings, Inc. · 73.65 0.9% 12.9% 14.6% -1% 69 0.63 0.9x 6.2 19.5 13%
AGX Argan, Inc. 667.02 -1.5% 1.6% -0.4% 105% 47 0.86 0.7x 9.9 44.7 -29%
ALMU Aeluma, Inc. · 21.58 -6.5% -4.7% -7.3% 21% 45 0.52 1.0x 76.0 -87.5 33%
AMAT ! Applied Materials, Inc. 450.06 0.1% 4.1% 14.2% 68% 56 0.98 0.9x 12.3 27.8 14%
AMD ! Advanced Micro Devices, 516.10 -0.4% 10.4% 45.6% 131% 67 1.00 0.8x 22.5 39.8 -9%
AMKR Amkor Technology, Inc. 69.56 -1.4% 5.8% -0.3% 62% 39 0.86 1.3x 2.4 28.4 9%
AMZN ! Amazon.com, Inc. 270.64 -1.2% 1.6% 2.1% 19% 48 0.94 0.8x 3.9 27.4 16%
ANET Arista Networks, Inc. · 159.47 2.7% 3.5% -7.7% 19% 66 0.80 1.2x 20.7 35.8 18%
APH Amphenol Corporation 148.76 0.7% 12.6% 1.0% 7% 68 0.78 1.4x 7.1 26.4 22%
APLD ! Applied Digital Corporat 47.28 -4.8% 3.1% 38.0% 68% 58 0.94 0.9x 42.3 -49.8 37%
ARM AVOID Arm Holdings plc 353.29 5.4% 15.3% 68.0% 208% 81 1.00 1.4x 76.7 115.6 -34%
ASML ! ASML Holding N.V. - New 1612.76 0.4% -1.2% 12.1% 39% 52 0.98 0.8x 18.4 33.9 3%
ASX ! ASE Technology Holding C 38.35 -5.5% 10.2% 22.1% 127% 60 0.93 1.3x 0.1 24.2 1%
AVGO ! Broadcom Inc. 446.77 4.7% 7.9% 7.0% 29% 58 1.00 0.9x 31.0 24.2 8%
AXTI AXT Inc 103.16 -10.8% -26.7% 30.2% 516% 45 0.73 0.8x 70.4 137.2 -15%
BE ! Bloom Energy Corporation · 285.00 -1.7% -5.8% 0.6% 189% 57 0.92 0.9x 33.1 65.9 -9%
CAMT Camtek Ltd. · 171.66 -1.8% 2.6% -10.6% 49% 33 0.75 0.7x 15.8 37.9 9%
CEG Constellation Energy Cor · 287.75 0.5% -2.1% -7.9% -21% 42 0.27 0.9x 3.5 21.2 27%
CIEN ! Ciena Corporation 580.23 1.8% -0.6% 10.0% 136% 57 0.96 0.7x 16.0 66.4 -21%
CIFR ! Cipher Digital Inc. 23.65 -3.8% 7.6% 33.3% 46% 61 0.93 0.8x 46.1 35.3 34%
COHR Coherent Corp. · 361.47 -4.1% -4.3% 13.1% 86% 57 0.87 0.8x 10.7 44.6 5%
CRCL Circle Internet Group, I 113.00 4.4% -0.1% 24.3% 35% 50 0.29 0.9x 10.6 50.7 29%
CRWV CoreWeave, Inc. 109.53 2.5% 3.8% -1.9% 38% 45 0.38 0.8x 9.6 -174.7 27%
CSCO ! Cisco Systems, Inc. 120.42 1.5% 0.0% 31.6% 59% 80 1.00 1.1x 7.8 25.2 4%
DKNG DraftKings Inc. · 24.49 -0.2% -2.5% 5.0% -31% 43 0.14 1.1x 1.9 14.3 42%
DLR Digital Realty Trust, In · 190.00 -0.7% -1.1% -5.4% 23% 40 0.76 1.0x 10.8 66.3 15%
DOCS Doximity, Inc. · 21.40 1.6% 7.3% -12.4% -51% 34 0.06 1.0x 6.1 13.4 18%
ENTG Entegris, Inc. · 138.79 0.3% 2.6% -1.8% 55% 39 0.80 0.9x 6.5 30.1 15%
EQIX Equinix, Inc. 1068.04 -0.1% -1.1% -0.9% 41% 51 0.89 1.1x 11.1 55.6 12%
ETN Eaton Corporation, PLC · 400.60 -0.3% 2.4% -7.2% 23% 50 0.74 1.0x 5.5 25.5 13%
FN Fabrinet · 654.16 -2.1% -7.1% -4.3% 36% 55 0.82 1.5x 5.5 37.9 15%
FORM FormFactor, Inc. · 124.59 -4.3% -3.4% -8.3% 110% 33 0.76 0.9x 11.6 45.8 16%
FSLY Fastly, Inc. · 17.77 4.9% 8.9% -29.7% 74% 34 0.42 0.4x 4.3 45.0 37%
FTAI FTAI Aviation Ltd. · 260.34 -0.9% 3.3% 4.5% 24% 46 0.76 0.6x 9.4 22.6 35%
GDS GDS Holdings Limited · 35.45 0.6% 1.2% -16.2% -8% 27 0.49 1.8x 0.6 220.5 53%
GEV GE Vernova Inc. · 968.32 -2.8% -6.8% -10.6% 43% 39 0.74 1.0x 6.6 39.5 26%
GLW Corning Incorporated · 181.16 -0.8% -6.5% 10.5% 100% 47 0.83 0.9x 9.6 42.9 9%
GOOG ! Alphabet Inc. 376.43 -2.5% -0.8% -1.4% 19% 34 0.90 1.1x 10.8 26.0 11%
HIMS Hims & Hers Health, Inc. · 26.15 3.0% 10.1% -3.8% -22% 42 0.23 0.5x 2.6 20.3 2%
HPE AVOID Hewlett Packard Enterpri 43.04 12.6% 14.5% 49.6% 79% 81 1.00 1.9x 1.6 15.8 -30%
ICHR ! Ichor Holdings 71.52 2.0% 3.7% 8.4% 250% 46 0.91 1.2x 2.6 27.4 7%
INTC Intel Corporation · 114.68 -5.1% -4.3% 21.4% 191% 40 0.87 1.0x 10.7 74.5 -23%
INTR Inter & Co. Inc. · 6.17 -2.7% 0.2% -18.7% -26% 45 0.09 2.2x 0.4 5.8 57%
IOT Samsara Inc. · 34.99 10.8% 12.3% 21.7% 3% 68 0.47 0.7x 12.6 41.5 25%
KLAC ! KLA Corporation 1921.71 -0.3% 1.8% 9.9% 51% 54 0.93 0.9x 19.2 38.5 -3%
LASR nLIGHT, Inc. · 74.12 -6.4% -5.6% 6.1% 93% 50 0.84 0.7x 14.4 109.7 17%
LITE Lumentum Holdings Inc. · 854.96 -0.7% -9.7% -5.2% 121% 46 0.80 0.8x 26.7 47.2 29%
LPTH ! LightPath Technologies, 16.98 -6.4% 0.2% 32.6% 45% 72 0.92 1.8x 20.2 130.6 -6%
LRCX ! Lam Research Corporation 318.18 0.1% 4.2% 23.4% 72% 62 0.98 0.9x 18.4 40.1 -1%
MKSI ! MKS Inc. 324.26 0.3% 1.1% 14.3% 93% 56 0.96 0.7x 5.4 21.7 11%
MOD ! Modine Manufacturing Com 278.91 3.0% 7.1% 9.5% 98% 52 0.92 1.8x 4.6 24.4 15%
MPWR ! Monolithic Power Systems 1566.21 -4.1% -1.5% -3.0% 68% 47 0.90 1.2x 26.0 51.9 15%
MRVL ! Marvell Technology, Inc. 205.00 0.1% 4.4% 24.1% 130% 69 0.98 1.8x 20.6 34.0 5%
MTSI MACOM Technology Solutio 364.64 -6.8% -5.5% 29.5% 108% 52 0.85 1.2x 25.9 53.3 8%
MU AVOID Micron Technology, Inc. 971.00 5.1% 29.3% 87.8% 208% 70 1.00 1.3x 18.8 9.2 -31%
NET ! Cloudflare, Inc. 241.82 6.0% 11.9% 18.0% 23% 77 0.84 0.8x 36.7 158.6 -3%
NFLX Netflix, Inc. · 86.02 -0.4% -2.9% -8.1% -5% 45 0.17 0.7x 7.7 22.4 33%
NTAP AVOID NetApp, Inc. 174.29 22.4% 25.1% 57.3% 65% 94 1.00 3.1x 5.0 17.8 -30%
NTES NetEase, Inc. · 122.82 -1.0% 5.4% 4.5% -16% 63 0.28 1.5x 0.7 11.6 32%
ON ! ON Semiconductor Corpora 120.62 -2.5% 3.8% 19.7% 113% 64 0.92 1.2x 7.7 28.4 -13%
ONTO Onto Innovation Inc. · 258.24 -0.2% -1.5% -12.5% 56% 35 0.77 1.0x 12.5 27.2 36%
OPTX Syntec Optics Holdings, 9.95 -9.9% -6.8% 29.7% 218% 62 0.82 1.3x 14.6 nan nan%
ORCL Oracle Corporation 225.78 10.8% 17.5% 39.9% 16% 69 0.47 0.7x 10.1 28.1 8%
P Everpure, Inc. · 79.51 8.9% -8.8% 11.3% 15% 51 0.59 2.2x 6.7 26.4 17%
PINS Pinterest, Inc. · 20.05 -2.9% 3.9% 2.0% -25% 41 0.19 1.2x 2.6 8.9 38%
PL AVOID Planet Labs PBC 51.14 -0.5% 15.3% 38.3% 151% 83 0.99 1.1x 59.2 -2272.9 -31%
SATS EchoStar Corporation · 129.19 -1.4% 4.0% 4.9% 15% 52 0.90 1.5x 2.5 -1133.2 7%
SMCI AVOID Super Micro Computer, In 46.09 11.6% 29.5% 68.2% 49% 74 0.64 1.5x 0.8 14.3 -19%
SMTC Semtech Corporation 152.54 -8.3% -2.7% 45.2% 103% 65 0.89 2.6x 13.0 39.3 34%
SNAP Snap Inc. · 5.71 -3.4% -0.2% -5.9% -30% 40 0.28 0.8x 1.6 7.7 34%
SNDK ! Sandisk Corporation 1694.98 3.2% 14.6% 54.6% 516% 59 1.00 0.6x 19.0 9.6 -8%
SOLS ! Solstice Advanced Materi · 84.23 -0.4% 3.1% 2.9% 71% 58 0.91 0.6x 3.4 26.9 5% ·
STNE StoneCo Ltd. · 11.45 1.1% 4.1% 4.3% -6% 60 0.28 1.0x 0.2 4.5 55%
STX ! Seagate Technology Holdi 879.80 -0.1% 8.3% 30.6% 207% 65 1.00 0.8x 17.9 33.3 -6%
TER Teradyne, Inc. 374.31 -2.2% 4.4% 9.0% 80% 55 0.87 0.9x 15.5 39.3 -1%
TSLA Tesla, Inc. · 435.79 -1.4% 2.3% 14.2% -1% 53 0.74 0.7x 16.7 173.6 -5%
TSM ! Taiwan Semiconductor Man 418.45 -1.5% 3.4% 5.7% 31% 53 0.97 0.8x 0.5 21.4 12%
TTWO Take-Two Interactive Sof · 224.16 2.9% -1.5% 4.9% -11% 53 0.47 1.9x 6.3 22.3 25%
U Unity Software Inc. · 30.47 1.8% 19.2% 15.3% -31% 64 0.41 0.7x 6.9 22.8 14%
UBER Uber Technologies, Inc. · 70.40 -0.7% -2.0% -5.6% -15% 25 0.04 1.4x 2.7 16.1 48%
UCTT ! Ultra Clean Holdings, In 85.57 -2.0% 1.9% 9.5% 213% 48 0.92 0.9x 1.9 22.7 22%
UPST Upstart Holdings, Inc. · 33.79 3.4% 18.3% 7.0% -26% 69 0.16 1.0x 2.8 10.0 19%
VIAV Viavi Solutions Inc. · 48.56 0.1% -1.9% -7.3% 168% 44 0.85 1.2x 8.8 37.9 33%
VICR ! Vicor Corporation 334.84 -2.1% 24.9% 24.4% 187% 64 0.96 1.0x 35.8 60.3 -3%
VST Vistra Corp. · 160.23 -0.0% 2.5% 1.5% -3% 61 0.31 1.2x 2.8 14.6 41%
WDC ! Western Digital Corporat 531.21 0.0% 9.7% 22.3% 183% 64 1.00 0.7x 15.5 30.2 -2%
WOLF Wolfspeed, Inc. 59.28 -8.9% -15.2% 100.7% 213% 59 0.76 2.5x 4.0 -11.8 -33% ·
XP XP Inc. · 16.67 -1.7% -0.9% -13.0% 3% 31 0.14 1.0x 0.5 6.9 46%