conic.ai

CONVICTION PICKS

AVOID / TRIM

• AMAT — RSI 77, +29% month, +15% week — late-cycle semicap chase. Fade, don't chase.
• LRCX — RSI 69, +23% month, pos_52w 1.0 — same as AMAT pattern.
• ASML — RSI 67, +17% month, pos_52w 0.97 — wait for pullback.
• MU — +26% month, RSI 64 — discipline says don't chase the FOMO spike.
• ARM — +67% month residue, valuation uninvestable.
• SMCI — -31% week, no quality floor, streak 6 hit 100% on avoid.
• MRVL — +53% month, spike_only true.
• NTAP — +35% month, spike_only true.
• HPE — +41% month, F=4, spike_only — payback ongoing.
• META — pos_52w 0.16, abs/ts mom False — broken trend.
• MSFT — -5% week, abs/ts mom False, share-loss narrative intact.
• ESTC — spike_only, abs/ts mom False — bounce off broken name.
• WOLF — -38% month, no F-score, PM -73% — falling knife.
• CRCL — -37% month, F=3, PM -2.8% — falling knife.
• PL — F=2, PM -111%.
• ACMR — F=2, +49% month — pure mania.
• AXTI — F=2, ret_12_1 mania residue.
• APLD — F=4, PM -59%.
• CRWV — abs_mom False, PM -26%.
• SMTC — +18% month, pos_52w 0.98, PM -3% — no entry.

POSITION PLAN & RISK exposure x1.0 · open P&L -0.1% · realized -5.5% · 2 open / 5 closed

BACKTEST · $100k since inception paper book (with stops) vs the plan basket

VALIDATION / EDGE

BELIEF UPDATES · vs yesterday

• UPGRADE TSM accumulate→buy F=9 (top of universe), factor_composite 0.82 (highest), hqm_quality true, abs+ts mom both pass, RSI 56 not stretched, pos_52w 0.91 — quality leader with room. The only watchlist name that combines best-in-class fundamentals AND no extension. Compound conviction.
• UPGRADE CSCO avoid→watch F=8, hqm_quality true, RSI cooled to 50.9 from 79, ret_1w -2.46% — the VRT-style pullback is starting. Watch for a base; not buying yet but moving out of pure avoid.
• DOWNGRADE AVGO buy→accumulate Carryover streak -3, hit 17% on the high-conviction call. Fundamentals still pristine (F=8, fc=0.55, PM 39%), but ret_1m -13.1%, ret_1w -3.7%, RSI 42 — drawdown not yet base. Stay long-biased but step down conviction from HIGH to MEDIUM until the floor prints.
• KEEP NVDA accumulate→accumulate RSI 42 still oversold, abs+ts mom pass, vs_sma200 intact in spirit. F-score slipped to 4 (quality flag) and hqm_quality flipped false — watching for further degrade. Don't add aggressively; tracking position only.
• KEEP VRT avoid→avoid ret_1w +0.7% bounce, but ret_1m -19.5% confirms thesis kept missing was on the long side; now downgraded VRT belief itself stays avoid until RSI/breadth confirm a real base, not a dead-cat.
• KEEP SMCI avoid→avoid Streak 6 hit 100% on avoid; this week -30.8% confirms the no-quality-floor thesis. Compound the avoid.
• KEEP AMAT avoid→avoid RSI 77, ret_1m +28.9%, ret_1w +15.3%, pos_52w 1.0 — semicap chase, exactly the spike to fade not chase. F=6 quality is decent but valuation/momentum profile is late-cycle. Hold avoid.
• KEEP LRCX avoid→avoid RSI 68.7, ret_1w +13.1%, ret_1m +22.6%, pos_52w 1.0. Same AMAT-style extension. Avoid.
• KEEP ASML avoid→avoid RSI 66.7, ret_1w +6.5%, pos_52w 0.97 — extended though F=8 is best in semicap. Wait for pullback.
• KEEP MU avoid→avoid ret_1m +26.5%, RSI 64, F=7, hqm_quality true — quality but still the FOMO trap; the discipline is to not chase the spike. Hold avoid; revisit on a 15%+ pullback.
• KEEP ARM avoid→avoid ret_1m +66.6%, F=6, hqm_quality true — even with quality, valuation/extension makes it uninvestable here.
• KEEP MRVL avoid→avoid ret_1m +53.2%, spike_only true. Avoid.
• KEEP NTAP avoid→avoid ret_1m +34.8%, spike_only true. Avoid.
• KEEP HPE avoid→avoid ret_1m +41.2%, F=4, spike_only true — quality floor missing. Streak 6 confirms.
• KEEP ESTC avoid→avoid spike_only true, abs/ts mom False, ret_12_1 still deeply negative. No turn.
• KEEP META avoid→avoid Streak 5 hit 83% on avoid, pos_52w 0.16, abs/ts mom False, ret_1w -3.14%, ret_1m -8.3%. Broken name.
• KEEP MSFT avoid→avoid ret_1w -5.1%, abs/ts False, RSI 39, pos_52w 0.19. Ongoing share-loss-to-ORCL narrative.
• KEEP PL avoid→avoid F=2, profit margin -111%. Permanent avoid.
• KEEP ACMR avoid→avoid F=2 quality floor missing; ret_1m +48.7% is pure mania.
• KEEP WOLF avoid→avoid ret_1w -22.4%, ret_1m -38.5%, no F-score, PM -73%. Falling knife.
• KEEP SMTC avoid→avoid F=7 OK but PM -3%, ret_1m +18.1%, pos_52w 0.98 — no price discipline available.
• KEEP CRCL avoid→avoid F=3, ret_1m -37.2%, RSI 24 oversold but PM -2.8% and pos_52w 0.13. Falling knife.
• KEEP CRWV avoid→avoid abs_mom False, PM -25.6%. Streak 3 hit 100%.
• KEEP AXTI avoid→avoid F=2, PM -14.7%, ret_12_1 mania residue.
• KEEP APLD avoid→avoid F=4, PM -59%. Avoid.

VS PRIOR DAYS

Yesterday's 23 calls all pending (3d maturity not yet hit). Track record stays: 32% beat-universe on buys (mediocre — humility required on sizing, hence AVGO downgrade and NVDA conviction cut), 65% under-universe on avoids (the avoid discipline is doing work — keep compounding it). Pattern learned: avoid extended semicap names keeps paying; quality drawdowns (NVDA/AVGO) are slower to validate than expected. Today's adjustment: tighter conviction calibration, upgrade only the cleanest quality+momentum name (TSM), keep buys few.

MACRO & REGIME

X / FINTWIT TRENDS

• Megacap revenue concentration narrative continues: NVDA YoY rev growth ~85% vs S&P 500 ~12% — alpha keeps flowing to top-of-stack (FinanceJack).
• Semi inference cost compression accelerating (SemiAnalysis: DeepSeekV4 100x perf improvement in 26 days on GB300/MI355X/B200) — bullish capex/compute but bearish margin/pricing for compute providers.
• Anthropic vs OpenAI usage rotation: power users moving to Codex over 4.8 Opus per Dylan — small straw-in-wind that the LLM oligopoly is still genuinely contested.
• No coherent capex-up-cycle narrative beyond the existing one; fintwit AI chatter today is noise-heavy (no high-signal new theme to underwrite a fresh pick).

FULL WATCHLIST · reference only, descriptive not a buy list